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IS THE HOUSING MARKET BUBBLE IN CALIFORNIA HALF FULL OR HALF EMPTY?
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By:
Sebastian Gibson
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It has been a matter of great discussion now for the last year not whether there was a bubble in the California real estate housing market (there was), but whether it has really burst yet, whether it only partially burst, whether that little pffft you heard was the bubble actually popping, or whether it is yet to pop, or is now set to re-inflate yet again.
Okay, so the housing market was getting ahead of itself. Hard as it is to remember now, there was a time only a couple of years ago when people were paying bonuses to sell your property California. When there were lotteries at new housing developments because there were way more buyers interested than there were new homes. When properties listed were sold the same day or by the first weekend they were put on the MLS. When that happens, and it was happening even in areas in the mid-west, there is a bubble.
Today, the real estate markets across the U.S. are flooded with homes for sale. Sales are way down across the board. Which means, except for those who have to buy something (for instance, because they have moved) or in the case of first-time buyers, no one is buying because it is almost impossible to sell their existing home in the first place.
But a strange thing is happening. Prices aren’t going down. At least, not like one would expect in a real market bubble. In fact, in a surprising number of areas, prices are rising. What this means is a couple of things. Except for individual sellers facing their own special circumstances, there is no general panic. People have already discounted their prices to a large extent. And, it appears that, at least in the short term, people are prepared to wait it out or at least wait a certain number of months before discounting their prices any more.
Some psychologists (or economists posing as psychologists) have attempted to diagnose this situation in terms of the ostrich sticking its head into the sand, albeit an ostrich with a sub-prime loan that is ticking down to zero. Other economists unafraid to openly practice psychology talk openly using the term, “denial.”
What it may come down to is how optimistic a person is. A person who sees the glass as half full will say that the bubble is half gone and is now just right. A person who sees the sky falling down and the glass as half empty, will say that the bubble is only half deflated and has another half to go before the bubble disappears.
I see it more in terms of a bottle of beer. At half full, I’ve had half of a good beer, and I still have another half to go and then I will simply order another beer and talk some more with that cute cocktail waitress. Cheers.
Sebastian Gibson is both a realtor and a real estate lawyer in California of Sebastian Gibson Properties in Rancho Mirage, California dealing in California Real Estate Property, Palm Springs Desert Homes Land For Sale, Desert Area MLS and is the Senior Attorney with the San Diego Personal Injury Lawyer Firm from San Diego, Los Angeles, Orange County, the Palm Springs Desert Area, SoCal
http://www.sebastiangibsonproperties.com/ |
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